Greater Austin Residential Real Estate - November 2025 Market Update

There are signs that the Austin market is stabilizing...still

The good news - There are signs the Austin market may be stabilizing. But remember—real estate is hyper-local.
Even neighboring streets can perform differently. This report offers a broad overview of what’s happening across the Greater Austin region, specially Travis, Williamson and Hayes Counties. If you’d like a more specific update on your neighborhood, give me a call. I’d be happy to talk.

Quick Recap: What happened from 2020 to 2022

The Greater Austin real estate market saw an unprecedented boom from 2020 to mid-2022. Fueled largely by pandemic-related shifts, home prices surged 50% to 70%. It was an ideal time for sellers—but a real challenge for buyers. By June 2022, the momentum began to slow. By late July, it was clear that prices had peaked and would begin to correct.    

The sharp price increases during the pandemic were unsustainable. We have been in a multi-year correction, driven largely by two key factors:  Incomes haven’t kept up with rising home prices and higher interest rates have sidelined many buyers. The question is are we through the correction?

In January 2023, The Real Deal, a national real estate news site, reported that Reventure Consulting CEO Nicholas Gerli called Austin “arguably the largest housing bubble in America based on fundamental data.” Gerli predicted a 30–40% decline in home prices over a three-year period. We are getting close to the end of that timeline. While prices haven’t dropped that dramatically, we have seen an average and median decline of 15–18%.  

Fast Forward...the latest data from October 2025

As noted in The Street, Warren Buffett's company Berkshire Hathaway noted the housing market throughout the country is showing a shift, saying “The poster child for new beginnings is Austin, Texas,” Berkshire wrote. “Nestled in the foothills of Hill Country, Austin is the Live Music Capital of the World (as well as the state capital). The ultimate in Sun Belt charisma with a youthful vibe, hot weather, great food, and laid-back lifestyle, Austin is the tech mecca of an investment-friendly state.” This could mean prices have corrected enough to encourage buyers to return to the market.

In my opinion, it is a mixed bag.  The Austin Board of Realtors is reporting the Central Texas housing market holds steady in October with balanced inventory and rising pending sales. 

From the Austin Board of Realtors: 

AUSTIN, Texas — According to the October Central Texas Housing Report released by Unlock MLS, pending sales increased 5.8% to 2,463 sales, and inventory ticked up to 5.3 months across the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA. Marking the seventh straight month of price stability, median sales price rose 1.4% year over year to $439,000, while closed sales dipped 9.6% year over year to 2,238 sales across the MSA. 

The mixed bag is that sales prices are up, but there are more houses on the market, and there are fewer transactions closing. The good news is that prices are up and pending sales are up, which many economists consider to be a leading indicator.

Meanwhile, The lead economist for the National Association of Realtors predicts for 2026 a 14% increase in existing-home sales in 2026, along with a 5% increase in new-home sales, a 4% increase in the median home price, and mortgage rates settling in at 6%.  That is a national prediction, as we know all real estate is local, so we will see what happens here in Austin.

Here is a chart of the last 5 years.  It looks like the market is improving, though it's off from its 2022 peak.

The Takeaway

• Inventory remains low. If you’re selling, strategy is everything. Homes that are well-positioned still sell quickly—sometimes with multiple offers.

• If you’re staying put, hang in there. This is my third Austin downturn, and the recoveries are always strong.

• If you’re buying or investing, now could be a smart time to act. Sellers are motivated, and lending tools are more flexible than they’ve been since 2007.

We never know when the market hits bottom until it's already turning—but when it does, it often moves quickly.

(All data is sourced from the Austin Board of Realtors and includes January–October 2025 sales figures.)

If you'd like a personalized update for your neighborhood or are thinking about buying or selling, I’d love to help.